ADerating ForecasterHackArizona · Team 10
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Byron Unit 1

Constellation · Rock · IL

Operational7-day point: 99.9%
Run May 15 · source live
Year:
Operational ≥ 95%Weather dipNon-weather dipRefueling + recovery
No data for 2026.

The trend line is colored by what caused the dip: green when the plant is operational (≥ 95%), red across weather-driven dip events, magenta across non-weather-driven dip events (model predicted ≥ 95% but realization fell below 90% on at least one day in the event), and bold blue across refueling outages and the reactor ramp-back that follows until the plant returns to ≥ 95%.

Top features driving the 7-day forecast

SHAP, capacity-factor pp
Baseline 96.9 → Point 100.0top 5 features
  • Streamflow (30d max)
    +1.86
  • Streamflow (7d max)
    -0.95
  • Day of year (cyclic, sin)
    +0.71
  • Streamflow (1d ago)
    -0.55
  • Streamflow (14d ago)
    +0.39

Weather inputs feeding the 14-day forecast

Trailing 30-day conditions the model uses to project the next 14 days
Air temp (max)21.9 °C
Water temp13.9 °C
Streamflow14.1 kcfs